The Scenario Builder lets you ask “what if some candidates were labelled differently as regards their stance on sexuality?” and then see what that would do to the picture of the 2026 General Synod. It is a what-if tool: a scenario is your own reading, never the evidence-based position, and it never changes the real data and is simply saved locally to your computer.
What a scenario changes, and what it does not
- Only the stance labels change. Votes, counts, first preferences, ages and every other fact stay exactly as they are, and vote transfers are not re-run.
- The core label is always shown beside yours. Wherever a member’s label has been changed, the evidence-based (core) label appears next to the scenario label, and every result shows the core figure beside the scenario figure.
- Who is counted. The 2026 members counted are the elected Clergy, Laity and suffragan bishops in the stance data. Diocesan bishops, ex officio and appointed members are not included, so this is not a forecast of every vote in Synod.
- Why use it. Typical questions are: how would the overall balance change if every Likely conservative were treated as Not established, or if the Not established members in a particular diocese were split one way? The results show the answer, and the comment you write with the scenario records your reasoning.
Making a scenario, step by step
- Start. Press New scenario for a blank one (every label at its core value). Give it a name, and add a comment saying what it is for and why.
- Choose who to change. In section 2 the list opens on the members elected in 2026. Use Show (Elected, Not elected or All candidates) and the filters to narrow it, or search by name or election. Filters only choose who you see; they never change a label.
- Tick members. Click a row or its box to tick it. Click a name to open that member’s or election’s box instead. Select all shown will tick every row matching the filters on every page, while the box in the heading row ticks only the current page.
- Reassign. Choose the label to give the ticked members. Members already in that label are left alone. Repeat steps 2 to 4 as often as you like.
- Read the results. Section 3 shows, for each House, the core figure and the scenario figure side by side, with Change as scenario minus core. Underlined figures open the list of candidates or elections behind them. Overall labels for each constituency, and the shift from the last Synod, follow the same rules as the Stance Explorer.
- Look at the seats. Switch the seat diagram between your scenario (changed seats outlined) and the core labels.
- Undo or reset. Undo last change steps back one reassignment; Reset to core labels clears them all.
Five labels or three. The Labels switch changes the list. In the simpler three-label view, Conservative and Likely conservative are combined as All conservative, and Likely revisionist and Revisionist as All revisionist. Reassigning to All conservative or All revisionist sets the firm label (Conservative or Revisionist) for anyone not already in that group.
Seeing the scenario in an explorer
Under Show this scenario in an explorer there is a button for each of the six explorers. Press one, and the explorer opens in a new tab with your scenario already running; look for the yellow Scenario box at the top of the page, which says how many members are labelled differently. The scenario code is also copied for you. If the explorer does not show the scenario, press Load a scenario in the explorer and paste the code (Ctrl+V, or Cmd+V on a Mac).
The automatic hand-over works when the Builder and the explorers are on the same website and opened in the same browser. In another browser or on another device, use the paste route.
Saving, sharing and limits
| Button | What it does |
| Save | Keeps the scenario in this browser under its name, replacing its earlier saved version |
| Save as a copy | Keeps a second, separate copy under a new name, so you can try a variation |
| Delete this saved scenario | Removes the saved version from this browser only |
| Open scenario box | Shows your comment, the steps you took and every changed member, core label beside scenario label |
| Export file | Downloads the scenario as a file to keep, send to someone or load into another browser |
| Copy scenario code | The same content as text, to paste into Import, an email or a note |
| Import a scenario | Loads a file or pasted code as your working scenario |
Privacy. Saved scenarios stay in your own browser. Nothing is sent anywhere or added to the site, so clearing your browser data removes them; use Export file for anything you want to keep.
Sharing. To give a scenario to someone else, send them the exported file or the code. They load it with Import in the Builder, or with Load a scenario in any explorer.
Things to know
- A scenario is a what-if. When quoting one, say that it is a scenario, and give the comment explaining what you assumed.
- Opening a scenario in an explorer replaces any scenario that explorer was already holding. Use the Remove scenario button in the explorer’s Scenario box to return to the core labels.
- Explorers show the scenario label wherever a label is shown, with the core label available beside it. A few side-by-side table columns still show only the core figures.
- The Stance Explorer keeps its five labels in every view.
- Results use the real votes; only the grouping of candidates by label changes. Treat the output as an illustration of how sensitive the picture is to the labelling, not as a prediction.